Protracted problems following the 2010 elections

July 28th, 2010
Thousands of political prisoners, especially pro-democracy activists and ethnic-minority political activists, are still in prisons in Burma. The ethnic minority armed groups have consistently refused to accept the proposal of the military regime in Burma, the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), to transform their armed forces into government-controlled Border Guard Forces (BGF) or local militia forces. There have been increasing military offensives by the Burmese Army in ethnic-minority regions in eastern Burma part. Hundreds of thousands of Burmese refugees living in Thailand cannot expect to go back home after elections.

These are Burma’s election dilemmas. The international community, including some ASEAN countries, demanded that the regime hold ‘free, fair and inclusive’ elections, but it has flatly rejected this idea. Restrictions of freedom in the 2008 Constitution and elections forced Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and her party, National League for Democracy (NLD), to decide to not participate in the 2010 elections. No political prisoners are to be released before elections, and they have no rights to form political parties or to be members of a political party.

The 2010 Burmese elections are only free for the SPDC’s newly formed political party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP); the party has been formed of retired military commanders, led by Gen. Thein Sein, current Prime Minister of Burma. The USDP has freely raised funds for itself with the permission of the SPDC, and it has freely conducted a “political campaign” since 2009, while many ethnic-minority political are still waiting to be officially registered to run in the elections, and are struggling meet party budgets.

Is it “fair” to have a competition between the USDP and Burma’s other political parties, when the USDP is strong supported by the Burmese government? The original election laws are not fair, and totally restrict pro-democracy parties, ethnic-minority politicians, and political parties that won in Burma’s 1990 elections from running in the contest elections. The elections are not inclusive for all political forces, but the SPDC plans to retain it’s power through new name and a legitimate role.

The regime has to hold the elections, but only because of international pressure. On the other hand, Burma’s military leaders understand that they must retain their power through a new name in legitimated elections, as Burma has already been ruled by the military for over two decades. The regime certainly has no intentions to solve the country’s protracted problems.

Many people in Burma do not have much interest in elections, because they have already learned of the regime’s unfairness from the 2008 Constitutional Referendum. Because the voters already know about the doomed nature of the elections, and they have no ‘favorite political parties’ to vote for, they have no choice for their future.

Predictable results will come of Burma’s 2010 elections. The USDP will win the elections and will form a new government. Retired generals will hold cabinets posts. What will change? Burma’s generals will just be changing their clothes. Their political ideologies will remained the same. They will arrest anyone who is against the government. They will keep all political prisoners imprisoned, and could extend more prisons countrywide.

The new regime will allocate more of the nation’s budget to the Burmese Army, or tatmadaw. The fighting between ethnic-minority armed forces and the Burmese Army troops will be on-going. Human rights violations committed against members of ethnic minorities will continue, and thousands more people will be displaced from their homes. Some refugees in Thailand’s refugee camps will seek refuge in third countries. But many of them will be remained in refugee camps.

The upcoming elections, which have thus far not been “free, fair and inclusive” in nature in Burma, will not lead to democracy, national reconciliation, peace and prosperity. Many of Burma’s already protracted problems will remain the same.